Quick link: The outlook is: Still Not Great

2024-10-21

The link: World Energy Outlook 2024 (IEA).

What it says: It's always worth going through each IEA's annual report — if it's not the most important global overview document coming out every year, it's up there — but here's a few key quotes from the Overview and key findings:

Clean energy meets virtually all growth in energy demand in aggregate in the STEPS [scenario] between 2023 and 2035, leading to an overall peak in demand for all three fossil fuels before 2030, although trends vary widely across countries at different stages of economic and energy development.
Emissions are set to peak soon, but have to decline rapidly: how consumer choices and government policies play out will have huge consequences for energy markets & for our planet. [My note: the main scenario is consistent with 2.4° of warming by 2100, which is a path with significant social and economic damage through the whole century, not just "a 2100 problem".]
Geopolitical risks are set to remain high but underlying market balances for many fuels and technologies are easing, signaling a shift towards a buyers’ market.
The takeaway:BUT: