I've adapted the predictive model to look at the Spanish Liga. Unsurprisingly, it's currently giving Barcelona a 96.7% chance of winning the title, with Atlético a far second place with 3.1%, and Real Madrid less than 0.2% (I believe the model still underestimates small probabilities, although it has improved in this regard.)
Note that around the 9th round or so, the model was giving Atlético an slightly higher chance of winning the tournament than Barcelona's, although that window didn't last more than a round.