Category Archives: Sports

Statistics, Simians, the Scottish, and Sizing up Soothsayers


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A predictive model can be a parametrized mathematical formula, or a complex deep learning network, but it can also be a talkative cab driver or a slides-wielding consultant. From a mathematical point of view, they are all trying to do the same thing, to predict what's going to happen, so they can all be evaluated […]

The post-Westphalian Hooligan

Last Thursday's unprecedented incidents at one of the world's most famous soccer matches illustrate the dark side of the post- (and pre-) Westphalian world. The events are well known, and were recorded and broadcasted in real time by dozens of cameras: one or more fans of Boca Juniors managed to open a small hole in […]

The Premier League: United vs. City championship chances

Using the same model as previous posts (and, I'd say, not going against any intuition), the leading candidate to winning the Premier League is Manchester United, with approx. 88% chances. Second is Manchester City, with a bit over 11%. The rest of the teams with nonzero chances: Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, Tottenham, and West Brom […]